Kentucky Derby Day Selections: The Full Card

Dreaming of Anna is a must win for most of my Pick Four bets that I made with a group of friends, and I've gone with Eight Belles, Colonel John and Denis of Cork as my Derby selections in order -- I'm still planning on using horses like Pyro, but will only use Big Brown in third place in my trifecta.

Someone on 84WHAS radio this morning quipped that Barn 22, which is where Rick Dutrow is keeping Big Brown, is being called "The Pharmacy."

Race 1: 67K AllowanceN2X, 1 mile, 3yo+
Biker Boy was cross entered and scratched yesterday to run here today, horse ran third behind Jedi Code, one of my early Derby picks that didn't pan out. Bullet Rain won last out in the mud at Gulfstream, and has won here at a mile -- worth a play with a wet track this morning. My Pick Four syndicate partners dismissed my like of Stone Bird in the class drop, saying he hasn't dropped far enough -- I wouldn't bet the house on him but like to play Lukas on the undercard on big days.

Race 2: 64K AllowanceN1X, 6 furlongs, 3yo fillies
Bella Roja and Loving Vindication are both coming off a second start maiden win -- I like the former after he looked sharp in his debut over this track -- the other is coming off a long layoff but Frankel wins 33% in those circumstances. Keeneland debut winner Sly Storm as I look for him to improve in his second start, coming off of Polytrack.

Race 3: Optional Claim80K, 7 furlongs, 3yo+
First Defense is a horse that is single worthy in multi-race bets, still sticking to the Frankel off a layoff angle. He Loves Me Not will need his best race to be there in the end, hasn't raced since February, but his sharp work makes it look like he's ready. Forest Attack could just be a Polytrack specialist, but his sharp work over the Churchill training track says otherwise, one to include.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 miles, 3yo
If Chris Got Even makes it off of the also eligible list he will be hard to beat, Zito always shows up in the winner circle on Oaks/Derby weekend, even if not in a big race. Cherokee Artist comes back quickly after a sharp debut at Keeneland and could improve. Screen to Screen adds Gomez and switches back to dirt -- only Baffert horse on the card, the probable favorite.

Race 5: The Churchill Downs (GII), 7 furlongs, 4yo+
Noonmark is a possible multi-race single if you're looking to cut the cost of a ticket, big allowance win here in November and ran well in the slop at Gulfstream recently, although it may be dry by post time for this race. Junior College also a winner over this track, and has been consistent in starts over all kinds of surfaces. Tough beat as a Elite Squadrom as a long shot last out at Keeneland, and the horse returns to a track where he has success, worth a play at a price.

Race 6: LaTroien (GIII), 7 1/2 furlongs, 3yo fillies
Alina ran real well behind Derby contender Eight Belles and you have to like the addition of Bridgmohan. Game Face and Keep the Pace have looked sharp in previous stakes -- a solid tri-box with these three.

Race 7: Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (GIII), 1 Mile (turf), 3yo+ fillies&mares
Dreaming of Anna (best bet) is my single of the day, no reason to think that she won't bring her best, as she's had clear success over a wet turf. Sharp Susan is another that has raced well here, and over an off turf, although I don't see her beating the winner. Ventura has looked sharp in her two North American starts, including a win over the Polytrack at Keeneland, Gomez-Frankel are hot when they team up.

Race 8: Humana Distaff (GI), 7 Furlongs, 4yo+ fillies&mares
Hysterical Lady just missed in the Breeders' Cup last year and won this race last year returns to a race that she won in impressive fashion last year, the choice. Miraculous Miss looked great against the boys at Laurel after she was just beat in the Breeders Cup F&M Sprint, this race might give her the extra furlong she needs to grab a win. Sugar Swirl is in a four-race win streak that started in the Very Subtle Stakes here in November and she crushed the fields in her last two stakes races at Gulfstream -- hot jockey trainer numbers too.

Race 9: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (GI), 1 1/8 miles, 3yo+
Golden Balls (IRE) doesn't get the respect he deserves after just missing behind horses like Daytona -- like for him to improve second off a layoff today. Pick Four Syndicate wouldn't let me include Duveen although love his wins over the wet grass at Churchill last year -- will plan to hammer him for a price. Thorn Song also a winner over this yielding course, and ran well in the Makers Mark Mile, might not be on top in the end, but think he'll hit the board.

Race 10: 134th Kentucky Derby (GI), 1 1/4 miles, 3yo
I guess I've spent too much time around Larry Jones' barn this week, because I've drank the Eight Belles kool-aid -- all week I said I liked her to hit the board and now I'm making her my top selection, my friends have been mocking me over this pick. Colonel John is the horse that my head says to pick, he clearly likes the Churchill dirt, and we could see a repeat of that closing form in the Santa Anita Derby after horses start to gasp in the final turn. I think you really can draw a line through Illinois Derby after Denis of Cork's bad trip which started going into the turn, he won in a 12-horse debut here and was able to come from off the pace to score then under Borel.