Colonel John's Bullet: Does History Points to a Safe Place Bet?

Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John probably dispelled the notion that he's a synthetic surface specialist, working five furlongs in :57.80, the fastest work of 62 horses this morning at that distance.

His fractions were clocked in :12, :23.30, :34.60, and :46 -- and the colt galloped out to six furlongs in 1:11.20.

The Santa Anita Derby winner looked fantastic in his work and might have moved me from the "maybe" into the "believer" category -- either way he is a must use in exotics.

"Dirt is not an issue," trainer Eoin Harty said from outside his barn after the work. "I thought he handled it well today."

(Editor's note: all Eoin Harty quotes should be read with an Irish accent to enhance the enjoyability).

"It's not exactly the first time in his life that he's been on it. He was working on it up to a half mile when he came to me," he said.

Harty said he thinks the race is wide open, and hinted that there is more to winning the race than just raw ability (ahem, where have we heard that before).

"There is more to the Derby than the race itself. You've got to survive this, you've got to survive the walk over, you've got to survive the post parade, and then you've got to survive traffic -- so it's just a little bit more than taking the horse over there on a Tuesday afternoon in Delaware," he said.

I reminded Harty that when Hard Spun turned in a similar 57-and-change work on Monday of Derby week last year, that some argued that the colt worked too fast, too close to the race -- Harty said he didn't think it was an issue for his colt.

"If he was the only horse to go that fast, or close to it, then I'd say yeah it was -- but in light of the fact that everyone else seems to be working fast this morning, I think it's more track conditions than my horse doing a little too much," Harty said.

Even still if history means anything (and it's the Derby, so of course it does), maybe this means Colonel John is a safe bet to place. In addition to Hard Spun, who ran second last year after a similar workout on Monday of that Derby week, General Assembly worked :57 2/5 the Wednesday before the 1979 Kentucky Derby, finishing second that year behind Spectacular Bid.

It wouldn't be the Derby without minutia would it?