Kentucky Senate Vote Count

The Courier-Journal conducted a survey of the Kentucky Senate and concludes that Governor-elect Steve Beshear is within reach of the 23-votes he needs to get the expanded gambling issue passed in the Republican-controlled Senate.

From The Courier-Journal:

 

Fifteen senators said they likely would vote yes or are leaning in that direction. Thirteen said they would vote no or would probably do so.

With the legislative session less than two months away, Beshear needs to get eight more votes from among 10 remaining senators -- eight of whom remain undecided or won't divulge their opinion.

Beshear supports a constitutional amendment that would legalize casino gambling at Kentucky tracks and a few other locations. Beshear estimates that casinos would generate as much as $500 million in annual revenue for the state. Specific details such as what type of gambling (table games, slots only) and how revenue will be divided (race purses, education, etc.) are currently unknown and will be worked out as various bills are introduced and debated in the months to come.

As I pointed out on Wednesday, the issue must begin in the House and get must gain a 3/5 majority in each body (60 votes in the House, 23 in the Senate) before it goes to Kentucky voters in November of 2008. With the issue generally being split along party lines with Democrats in support and Republican against, getting the votes needed in the Democrat-controlled House is seen as likely since the party has a 63 member majority. However, with 21 Republicans in the 38 member Senate, this issue will clearly face more of an uphill battle in that upper body of the legislature.

There are currently several riverboat based casinos with full table games along the Kentucky border with Caesar's outside of Louisville, Belterra outside of Cincinnati, and Aztar outside of Evansville. However, there are few gambling options for individuals along the Kentucky-Tennessee boarder with areas like Kentucky Downs -- less than half an hour from the Nashville suburbs -- becoming a major beneficiary should casino gaming be approved.

By looking at the map of county-by-county voting in the Governor's race, we should get some indication of where voters may support expanded gambling. However, while I fully expect that the deep red sections of the south central counties to be a hard sell (I grew up in one of those counties) -- don't let the clear Beshear majority in the far east and west portions of the commonwealth fool you. Those very religious voters are going to be anything but a lock for a pro-gambling measure -- especially in a Presidential election year. The wedge issue that drove voters to the polls in 2004 was a gay marriage amendment, in 2008 you can fully expect that wedge issue to be expanded gaming.